Mission
Build Power Fund: an investment intelligence system that helps find, evaluate, size, and manage opportunities before they become consensus trades — with capital preservation as a hard constraint and high growth as the objective when the opportunity set justifies it.
What we are building
Not a black-box trading bot. A research + decision + risk platform that:
- Ingests a wide spectrum of financial and company data (prices, filings, earnings, thematic signals — not charts alone).
- Surfaces candidates early relative to mainstream narrative and parabolic price moves.
- Supports quantitative analysis and repeatable workflows, with a human in the loop for live capital decisions (especially early on).
- Records theses, actions, and outcomes so the process improves over time.
Two roadmaps
Same phase numbers, different objects. Do not treat them as one ladder.
| Plan | Lives in | What it sequences |
|---|---|---|
| Software | plan.md | Codify the PM → augment → expand perception → constrain risk → optional scale of the product |
| Capital | mandate.md | $0–$75k seed → earn the next invested cap → earn most of the $250k book → only then consider outside capital |
PowerFund does not allocate capital because capital is available. Capital is released as the investment process earns trust. While invested cost is well under the $75k capital Phase-1 cap, the job is evidence collection and process validation, not racing toward full deployment.
Engineering should not block on fund legal structure. Product and data design should not paint us into a single-user corner either. Software Phase N is not a prerequisite for capital Phase N.
Primary opportunity set
Thematic concentration where capital and policy are reshaping markets. The four core themes are not four unrelated sectors; they are one industrial transformation — a massive increase in the economic value of computation, electricity, and autonomous machines:
- AI infrastructure
- Energy (especially as a bottleneck to AI and electrification)
- Robotics and AI
- Defence
Other sectors are in scope when they feed the same stack or clear a high bar for asymmetry. See themes.md.
A retrospective “this watchlist would have doubled from 2024” is contaminated by survivorship: names are here partly because they already worked. The job is to find 2028 winners in 2026.
Success criteria
Near term maps to software Phase 1 plus capital Phase 1. Medium term maps to software Phases 2–3 and capital Phase 2. Long term is optional software Phase 4 / capital Phase 4.
Near term (personal operating system)
- Clear written mandate and risk rules that are actually followed.
- A usable research workflow: watchlists, company dossiers, signals, portfolio book, decision journal.
- At least one automated scoring path beyond price technicals (e.g. fundamentals / CapEx / filings-driven).
- Measurable process quality: fewer late chase entries; documented invalidations; post-mortems.
- Honest trade labeling: "early" claims backed by evidence that price has not discounted them; otherwise labeled momentum-with-fundamentals with matching exit discipline (see mandate).
- Decision-grade dossiers that state not only “would we own this?” but at what price we become unusually eager (normal / attractive / dislocation / panic vs thesis impairment).
- Performance judged against the S&P 500 (success) and QQQ (style), on both NAV and the deployed sleeve. See mandate.md.
Medium term (intelligence edge)
- Pipelines covering market data, filings/earnings, and thematic/alternative inputs relevant to our themes.
- Explainable signals with “why now,” confidence, and crowding/valuation filters.
- Portfolio construction aware of theme concentration, correlation, and drawdown controls.
Long term (optional scale)
- Evidence that the process can generalize beyond one operator.
- Path to research distribution or multi-investor capital without rewriting the core platform.
Non-goals (for now)
- High-frequency trading or market-making.
- Fully autonomous live trading without human review.
- Maximizing coverage of every asset class on day one.
- Raising outside capital before the process and track record exist.
Guiding principles
- Early ≠ obscure — early means evidence accumulating before consensus pricing, not microcap lottery tickets by default. Search for companies that control a bottleneck whose economics are changing faster than perception; do not search for “small” as a strategy.
- Preservation enables growth — survive wrong theses; size for asymmetry. Stretch return targets are scenarios, never objectives that override risk rules.
- Explainability — every actionable signal should be inspectable.
- Breadth of data, focus of action — ingest widely; concentrate decisions on the mandate.
- Process over prediction — journal, review, and risk rules compound; vibes do not.
- Dislocations are a return source — prepare before the scare (ranked watchlist, scenario values, pre-agreed size). Buy when price fell more than intrinsic value, not because something is down 25%. Cash and fully valued names that can be recycled are the option on that volatility.
- Capital is earned, not assumed — release more of the $250k only when the process has evidence. Availability of cash is not a reason to deploy it.